Berlin, a city once famously described by former mayor Klaus Wowereit in 2003 as “poor but sexy,” appears to be on the brink of a significant political upheaval. After two years under the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), recent opinion polls suggest a dramatic shift towards a potential hard-left coalition, a stark contrast to its current leadership and its historical identity.
For decades, Berlin grappled with economic challenges, epitomized by its €50 billion debt, poor public services, and high unemployment. The city’s unique history, divided for 44 years with West Berlin serving as a symbolic outpost within East Germany, meant a lack of major employers. While West Germany’s media thrived in Cologne and Hamburg, heavy industry in the Ruhr valley, and automotive giants like BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen in Munich, Ingolstadt, and Wolfsburg respectively, Berlin was left with two of everything—zoos, opera houses, orchestras, and planetariums—but few jobs and an abundance of empty, often squatted, apartment blocks and warehouses. Even the formal relocation of the German government from Bonn in the late 1990s, which brought an influx of civil servants, did little to stimulate private sector job growth.
The city’s affordability was once legendary; in 2004, a one-bedroom apartment in Prenzlauer Berg, a trendy middle-class district, could be rented for an astonishingly low €175 a month, a fraction of London rents at the time. Eating out was also remarkably cheap, with starters around €2 and main courses for €5. Apartments were plentiful, making it easy to find new accommodation. However, this era of affordability has long passed, with rents now soaring to €1,000 a month or more, mirroring the author’s current Berlin rent in 2026.
Over the past decade and a half, Berlin has undergone a transformation. Its marketing as ‘Silicon Allee’ has seen some success, attracting digital nomads benefiting from EU freedom of movement and a growing number of expat Americans. This influx, coupled with a failure to construct sufficient social housing, has driven rents sky-high. A 2014 attempt to ban Airbnb in the city proved largely ineffective, as landlords exploited loopholes by furnishing apartments and labeling them as short-term lets.
Despite its reputation for an antifa movement, squatters’ rights, and a general techno and gay rights philosophy, Berlin has been governed by the Conservative CDU for the past two years. This situation arose from logistical problems during the 2021 election, which necessitated a re-run by the then-governing centre-left SPD due to issues like the Berlin Marathon and a shortage of polling cards. The 2023 re-run, fueled by public frustration over the SPD’s perceived incompetence, saw former insurance salesman Kai Wegner of the CDU secure the top position. His campaign focused on reversing bike lanes and completing a long-unfinished 1960s inner-city ring road motorway, appealing to car-voters from the city’s suburbs.
However, Wegner’s tenure has been marred by controversy and declining personal ratings, with the motorway project itself deemed a disaster. A notable incident occurred in January this year when 45,000 homes in the prosperous south-west district experienced a multi-day blackout in the middle of winter. Wegner claimed he was working tirelessly from home, stating he was “on the phone all day” and “locked in my home office.” Diligent reporting by Tagespiegel and the RBB broadcaster later revealed he had actually gone out to play tennis, a “lie-by-omission” that his political opponents gleefully exploited by carrying tennis balls at press conferences. Despite the CDU’s plummeting poll numbers, their junior partners, the SPD, are not expected to benefit from this decline, as they are part of a centrist Grand Coalition, mirroring the federal German government.
A recent shock opinion poll this month places Die Linke (the Left party) in first place with just under 20 percent support. The Greens follow in second, while the CDU has plummeted to fourth, and the SPD is a distant fifth. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) holds third place, but with all other parties having pledged not to govern with them, they stand no chance of taking over the famous Berlin Rotes Rathaus. Consequently, three years after Berlin surprised Germany and much of Europe by electing a conservative government, the most probable coalition following this September’s elections would be a Red-Red-Green alliance comprising Die Linke, the Greens, and the SPD, provided the SPD finds the courage to pursue it.
