A recent “routine” intercontinental ballistic missile test conducted by China in the South Pacific has drawn sharp condemnation from US allies, who view the exercise as a destabilizing move amid Beijing’s efforts to showcase its expanding military capabilities.
The Chinese Navy carried out the missile test on Monday, with state media reporting that a nuclear submarine launched a missile equipped with a dummy warhead into international waters. This action quickly elicited strong criticism from key US partners in the Pacific region.
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated that the Chinese test was destabilizing for regional security, while Japan urged China to reconsider its actions. New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters, speaking from Wellington, expressed deep concern about China’s testing of nuclear-capable weapons in the South Pacific, emphasizing that the region should not be used as a missile testing ground.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also weighed in on the test during a summit in Ankara, Turkey, calling it “further proof that we must not be naive.”
While official media have not disclosed specific details about the test, nationalist military experts on Chinese social media have speculated about the missile’s potential power. Lieutenant Colonel Zhang Junshe, a researcher with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Naval Military Academic Research Institute, identified it as a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile from the Julang (JL)-3 series.
The Julang-3, meaning “Giant Wave-3,” is currently under development and is reported to have a maximum range of 12,000 kilometers (7,400 miles), capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. Three successful tests of the JL-3 were previously reported between 2018 and 2019. Zhang noted in his blog that this missile targets strategic objectives such as command centers, military bases, or energy infrastructure, rather than front-line combat troops.
The “Giant Wave-3” is believed to have been launched from a Type 094 Jin-class nuclear-powered submarine. These 135-meter-long submarines can sustain a crew of 120 sailors submerged for at least 70 days. The Chinese Navy currently operates six Type 094 submarines, though Zhang did not rule out the involvement of a modified submarine. According to the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, China also operates an additional 59 nuclear-powered attack submarines beyond its Jin-class fleet.
Zhang further explained that the weapon is designed to serve as a comprehensive deterrent, ensuring that “even if all other military weapons were to be put out of action, the Chinese submarine would still be fully capable of launching a nuclear counterstrike.”
This latest test follows a similar event in September 2024, when China launched an intercontinental missile carrying a dummy warhead from the mainland towards the South Pacific, reportedly landing in a pre-selected area in French Polynesia. That incident marked China’s first test of a long-range missile over international waters in over 40 years. As with the 2024 test, Beijing asserted this week that all neighboring countries were informed in advance and that the exercise was not aimed at any specific nation or target.
China’s military buildup is seen as a direct challenge to the US-dominated postwar security architecture in the Pacific, a construct that has been in place since World War II. During the Cold War, the US itself conducted numerous nuclear weapons tests in the South Pacific’s Bikini Atoll, now part of the Marshall Islands.
Beijing views the strong military presence of the US and its allies on its doorstep as a significant concern. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aims to ensure its capability to retaliate against military first strikes with an appropriate counterattack, while simultaneously pledging not to launch a nuclear first strike itself.
Felix Heiduk, head of the Asia Research Group at the Berlin-based think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), wrote in 2024 that China is “aggressively challenging the US-led regional security architecture on various levels.” Heiduk noted Beijing’s strategic goal to promote an alternative regional order “by and for Asians” with China at the helm, while dismissing the US-led order as a “relic of the Cold War.” This strategy encompasses the rearmament of the PLA, the expansion of bilateral security partnerships, and the militarization of large parts of the South China Sea.
Security concerns are particularly heightened in the South Pacific. A June 2026 study by Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance of the Australian think tank Lowy Institute highlighted that “The PLA’s missile force is China’s most effective means of launching long-range strikes against Australia,” adding that “In the event of a major regional conflict, bases throughout northern Australia would be targets for the PLA.”
Just last month, Australian researchers found no conclusive public evidence that a Chinese missile launched from the mainland could reach the entire Australian mainland. However, following Monday’s submarine-launched missile test in the South Pacific, which changes the launch point significantly, the situation for Australia’s metropolitan areas on its east coast has undoubtedly shifted.
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At that time, the German military was participating in an exercise led by US forces in the Pacific. For five weeks in July and August 2024, 29 nations with 40 warships conducted exercises around the US military base at Pearl Harbor.
