For the vast majority of the European Union’s existence, the political landscape was defined by Christian Democrats and Socialists governing in tandem. While their combined majority effectively dissolved in 2019, the structure evolved to include liberals, and by 2024, it informally incorporated the Greens. On paper, this arrangement provided the pro-European mainstream with a robust majority, as the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats, Renew Europe, and the Greens collectively hold well over 450 of the 720 available seats in the European Parliament.
Despite this theoretical strength, the reality of the new parliament is far more fragmented. When Ursula von der Leyen was confirmed for a second mandate, she secured only 401 votes. This outcome was heavily influenced by support from right-wing groups, including Georgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the Patriots for Europe led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, and the extreme-right Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) featuring the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Although the vote was held via secret ballot, the political implications were clear: the established pro-European coalition is fracturing. The EPP has signaled a willingness to look toward the right whenever the centre-left proves inconvenient for their agenda. This trend has become increasingly evident in subsequent legislative and policy matters, ranging from the situation in Venezuela to the implementation of the Return Regulation.
In these instances, the EPP has gone beyond mere engagement with the hard-right, effectively normalizing an alternative majority built on convenience. Whenever the parliamentary numbers are tight, the party has consistently chosen to pivot toward the right, suggesting that mainstream parties must now consider breaking their traditional ties with the EPP to navigate this new political reality.
