The impending inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the 47th president of the United States is set to fundamentally alter both the nation and the wider global landscape. As the world prepares for this transition, the immediate strain on transatlantic relations has become impossible to ignore. While the primary catalyst for these fraying ties lies within American political shifts and policy decisions, a significant contributing factor is Europe’s own weakness and self-delusion. It has taken the European bloc an entire year to fully accept the breakdown of the traditional transatlantic relationship, leaving 2026 as the critical year to determine whether this acceptance can be translated into decisive action.
Under the incoming administration, the U.S. appears poised to abandon its historic role in leading a rules-based international system. Critics warn that abandoning this global order without a viable replacement is the height of folly. This shift is highlighted by the president-elect’s “Donroe Doctrine,” which represents a profound departure from modern national security thinking. In this new geopolitical landscape, the U.S. president is betting on transforming America into the world’s largest and final petrostate, while China bets on securing its position as the leading and lasting electrostate. Unless Washington acts swiftly to rectify its trajectory, it risks being passed by not only Beijing but other rapidly advancing regions of the world, ultimately losing a strategic partner in an important part of the globe.
For European allies, navigating this transactional era will require a stark shift in strategy. In Trump’s world, it does little good to use the language of treaties or rules or laws. For Denmark and others to get their way, they’ll have to speak the language of power. Behind all the backslapping and bonhomie, it’s impossible to ignore the real concerns and fears that now fully penetrate the alliance. Erstwhile allies are being urged to coordinate their responses to Washington’s wholesale assault on its partners, even as they work to keep the U.S. president onside. Apparently, the U.S. military is for hire, even if there has been no request for its services. And if you want us — you have to pay. For Washington to continue finding enduring value in this historic alliance, it must transition toward a true and more equal partnership.
The security challenges facing the continent are further compounded by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The current fighting is only one component of Russia’s broader war against the European continent as a whole, a reality that European leaders must recognize and act upon. Meanwhile, the U.S. president’s ambition to act as a “peacemaker-in-chief” is built on a profound fallacy: the assumption that peace is achieved merely by ending the active fighting. Furthermore, the decision to go to war was a dangerous wager that military force could accomplish what diplomacy could not, a move that will likely cause the president political trouble come November. As long as a handful of individual players within the Trump administration continue to operate independently, chaos and confusion will likely surround any potential Ukraine peace plan.
The political repercussions of Trump’s victory will also reverberate through domestic European politics. His win is expected to further galvanize the continent’s populist parties and accelerate their normalization, mirroring the political shifts observed within the United States. Already, the president-elect has laid down a clear ideological marker through his selection of unusual global invitees. In a world increasingly governed by raw power rather than international norms, the strictures that have long constrained nuclear proliferation are now in danger of loosening or untangling entirely. However, there remains hope that other nations will step forward to assume the mantle of global leadership. Soon, everyone will get wiser and realize they have alternatives — and that when they unite, the U.S. president will be unable to continue his shake down operations.
Amid these sweeping global transformations, domestic dynamics in the U.S. continue to shift in unexpected directions. Wealthy American conservatives are currently hinting that they are prepared to provide financial backing once again to rescue a scandal-ridden Church from the brink of bankruptcy.
