Latvia has become the primary target for irregular migrant crossings originating from Belarus, according to Latvian authorities, marking a significant shift from previous years when Lithuania and Poland bore the brunt of such activity. This surge in pressure, occurring just months before Latvia's parliamentary elections on October 3, has fueled concerns that Minsk is again leveraging migration as a tool to destabilize the region and pressure the European Union.
Recent border data highlights the scale of this shift. On Thursday, Latvia, which shares a 173-kilometer border with Belarus, recorded 111 attempted illegal crossings. In contrast, Lithuania, with a significantly longer border of 679 kilometers, registered only two attempts on the same day, while Poland reported none the preceding day. Furthermore, secondary migration from Latvia into Lithuania has quadrupled.
Latvia's Interior Minister, Jānis Dombrava, stated, "Today Latvia's border has become the main target." Officials in Riga view the timing as deliberate, with a spokesperson for the Interior Ministry noting, "Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, openly supported by the Belarusian regime, has significantly increased security risks in the region and provides additional motivation for Belarus to continue hybrid activities, including the instrumentalisation of migration."
The ministry asserts that Minsk is intentionally facilitating migration flows towards the EU's external borders to strain national resources and increase pressure on neighboring countries. This tactic echoes the crisis that began in 2021 when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka threatened to flood neighboring countries with migrants and drugs. In response, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland constructed border barriers, enhanced surveillance, and increased patrols. However, Latvian officials now acknowledge that these measures alone are insufficient to manage the escalating pressure.
"The State Border Guard is doing everything possible,” Dombrava commented, “however, given the intensity of the migration pressure, the resources currently available are not always sufficient to intercept every group of illegal migrants in time." To bolster defenses, Latvia has sought and received support from its Baltic neighbors. Lithuania has deployed nine border guards and two service dogs to reinforce patrols along the Belarusian border, replacing a previous contingent of nine officers who had been stationed there since July 1. Estonia sent two 12-member Border Guard teams to Latvia in June.
Veiko Kommusaar, head of Border Guard at Estonia's Police and Border Guard Board, emphasized the shared responsibility, stating, "The Latvian-Belarusian border is both the external border of NATO and the European Union, and thus also our border." The collaborative objective, as articulated by Dombrava, is that “no illegal border crosser should be able to enter through [EU’s] external border.”
However, the current reality presents challenges. Lithuanian border authorities report a sharp increase in secondary migration, with the number of migrants attempting to transit through Lithuania after entering the EU via Latvia rising more than fourfold compared to the first half of last year. This trend has prompted discussions in Lithuania about potentially introducing temporary controls on its border with Latvia, mirroring Poland's year-long checks on arrivals from Lithuania and Germany.
Lithuania's new Interior Minister, Martynas Katelynas, has not dismissed the possibility of border controls, telling Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT, “if we had no other way to manage the flow and stop migrants at the border.” For the immediate future, however, the focus remains on reinforcing the EU's external frontier rather than restricting internal movement within the bloc. Following an agreement to deepen cooperation between law enforcement agencies on Thursday, Dombrava stated, "At the moment there is no question of restoring border control on the Latvian-Lithuanian border, but rather the possibility of sending a significant number of border guards to each other to support the country that is currently experiencing the greatest pressure."
Officials from the three Baltic countries maintain that the migrants are being used as pawns in a state-directed operation. "What is happening on the Latvian-Belarusian border is a deliberate operation organised with the support of Belarus, with the aim of undermining border security and the general sense of security," Kommusaar stated. "Ordinary people are used as a means of pressure to achieve their goal."
According to the Latvian interior ministry, many migrants enter Belarus legally before being transported to the borders with Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland and directed toward crossing points. Authorities allege that Belarusian security forces have assisted migrants to the frontier, provided equipment to breach border barriers, and in some instances, prevented them from returning into Belarus.
Lina Laurinaitytė, a spokesperson for the Lithuanian State Border Guard Service, noted that the nationalities of migrants have evolved. Earlier groups included citizens from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen, Somalia, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. "This is not spontaneous migration," Laurinaitytė commented. "It is a state-organised operation designed to exert political pressure on the European Union." Poland's Interior Ministry had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication.
