Five months after being blocked by Labour's ruling executive from standing for parliament, Andy Burnham found himself back in his Manchester mayor's office, contemplating ambitious plans. He spoke of appealing to Fifa to host the Women's Football World Cup final in 2035, imagining the impact for girls in the north of England. He also discussed a joint bid with other mayors for a "Great Northern" Olympic Games and a plan for the Ryder Cup in Bolton, emphasizing a need to "re-educate" sports bodies about the wider country.
These bold gestures are symptomatic of Manchester's recent trajectory, a city experiencing the fastest economic growth in the UK. Burnham, who served as Greater Manchester's mayor from 2017 to 2026, is now preparing to potentially apply this model to the entire nation. Manchester has already attracted the Brit Awards from London after half a century.
The city's economic success is rooted in a historical blend of free-market principles and a strong social spirit. Manchester's 19th-century cotton traders championed free trade and liberal economics, coexisting with the rise of the co-operative movement, trade unions, and the Suffragettes. Even the Manchester Ship Canal, a symbol of breaking monopolies, required local government intervention and worker support.
A pivotal moment for contemporary Manchester was the summer of 1996. Andy Burnham, who had left the North West to pursue his career, recalled having to take an unpaid reporter role at the Middleton Guardian after graduating in the early 1990s, a common path for his generation needing to move south to advance. By 1996, he was an MP's researcher.
That same year, Manchester faced devastation when the IRA detonated the largest bomb in the UK since World War Two, destroying the city centre. The subsequent reconstruction marked the beginning of Manchester's resurgence from de-industrialisation. A key idea, championed by local leaders, cultural figures, business figures, and architect Ian Simpson, was to reshape the city centre by demolishing damaged buildings rather than repairing them.
This approach transformed disaster into an opportunity to reshape the city's geography and economy. Council leader Sir Richard Leese and his chief civil servant, the late Sir Howard Bernstein, spearheaded bold, centrally driven strategic plans. These were largely executed by private capital and significant international investment. The council leadership focused on redeveloping brownfield industrial sites, areas the private sector initially avoided. The council de-risked these investments with public money and provided support during financial crises.
Ultimately, private capital flowed in, leading to extensive construction. The council offered flexible interpretations of affordable housing requirements, sometimes waiving them or allowing contributions in cheaper areas. Paul Thwaite, chief executive of NatWest, which has funded some of these projects, noted that Manchester's success over the past 20 years was "built on there being a clear plan the private sector can get behind."
This development model has created a critical mass of population, housing, jobs, and service sector activity, turning the city's graduate population into an economic asset. Burnham attributes this to a strong influx of young workers into the city's service economy. In a reversal of past trends, he stated, "no-one here has to leave to get on in life," and there's a net inflow of young people from London.
According to the Centre for Cities, Manchester retains over half its graduates, more than any UK city except London, and attracts almost as many young graduates as it produces. Tom Beahon, CEO of Manchester-based sports brand Castore, praised the mayor for helping "attract inbound investment, making it a place that students want to stay after they graduate from the fantastic universities." This, in turn, encourages more businesses to launch in the city.
This phenomenon exemplifies agglomeration effects – the economic benefits of concentrating similar jobs in one location. If its infrastructure can keep pace, Manchester's economy is poised for continued growth. Andy Burnham, a product of Greater Manchester, has spent his mayoral tenure shaping the city. As Andy Spinoza, a chronicler of Manchester's turnaround, put it, "Burnham jumped into a moving car, and by the end he was driving it."
While Burnham has risen to the cusp of No 10 without fully detailing his national policy plans, his book "Head North: A Rallying Cry for a More Equal Britain," co-authored with Merseyside Mayor Steve Rotherham in 2024, outlines his vision. This book forms the basis of his "Manchesterism" concept, his national political, economic, and constitutional prospectus. The 10-point plan proposes to "rewire" the country by improving "homes, transport and jobs" through a new set of principles for running the British state.
Burnham's programme advocates for the devolution of resources and constitutional change. A key element is challenging two long-standing UK government formulas for allocating funds: the Treasury's Green Book, which prioritizes areas of high growth and land value for infrastructure spending, and the Barnett formula, which allocates public spending to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Burnham argues the Green Book disadvantages the North, directing transport investment south, and that the Barnett formula leaves the North of England squeezed.
He points to Germany's "Basic Law," which enshrines a duty for "equivalent living standards" across regions, as a model for protecting local government and ensuring regional consultation on long-term decisions. Burnham also supports significant constitutional reform, including proportional representation and replacing the House of Lords with a "Senate of the Nations and the Regions," alongside devolving powers over public services to regional levels.
For Net Zero, he proposes a "Northern Way" that subsidizes transitions, retrofits, and local industry development, contrasting it with a "Whitehall way" characterized by bans and taxes that disproportionately affect the poor. However, implementing these policies faces challenges, including rising global energy prices, pressure on household budgets, and potential conflicts with North Sea energy interests. Some proposed changes, like full tax and spend devolution for every region, raise questions about fairness, and aides have reportedly downplayed changes to the Barnett formula due to concerns from Scottish politicians.
The fundamental difference between governing a city region and a country lies in the need to raise the entire spectrum of tax revenues or increase borrowing, both of which are currently constrained. While Manchester has been agile in attracting private capital for infrastructure, particularly housing, it's unclear if this can be replicated nationwide. When asked in February if "Manchesterism" was left or right-wing, Burnham described it as "very pro-business, pro-enterprise," aiming for individual and business success while encouraging giving back.
Critics argue that the focus on central Manchester's development has left other parts of the region behind, creating a "mini-London." While Burnham has criticized "neoliberalism" and "trickle-down effect," these have been core to the Manchester model. Despite this, public funds have been invested in trams, reflecting an effort to spread growth benefits regionally, reversing policies like Margaret Thatcher's 1985 bus deregulation.
Burnham has also floated ideas for increased public control, cost of living support, small business rate relief, and higher infrastructure investment, alongside increased defense spending. These proposals may conflict with promises to limit borrowing and major tax increases. For instance, the Defence Investment Plan is reportedly funded by cuts to capital investment in transport and energy, areas Manchesterism would prioritize for investment.
As mayor, Burnham championed projects like the Liverpool-Manchester Northern Powerhouse Rail and the Manchester-Birmingham high-speed line. The question remains what his approach will be as a potential Prime Minister. Paul Thwaite of NatWest suggests that "long-term certainty and genuine collaboration" can foster sustained growth through private capital, but emphasizes there is no "single blueprint." He adds that for devolution to succeed, "the institutions, the leadership and the commercial capability matter as much as the powers themselves."
Quoting Tony Wilson, Burnham stated, "It's Manchester, we do things differently here." Now, the nation awaits to see what that truly means for the UK.
"I had to do what so many people of my generation, born in the 60s or 70s in the north-west of England had to do to get on in life," he said. "We had to go south."
The tangible example of all of this can be found on Platforms 13 and 14 of Piccadilly station in central Manchester. The only east-west train link for the entire region is here, and it is often jam-packed with trains and 40,000 daily commuters attempting to cross the Pennines and get to the airport. Burnham has long ad
