The UK government has officially released its long-delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP), with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer describing the increased funding as a significant historic transformation for the country. BBC Verify has examined the specifics of these financial commitments to determine if the government remains on schedule to satisfy its international pledges to the military alliance.
According to the DIP, the Ministry of Defence’s baseline budget for the 2026-27 period is set at £68.3bn. However, Nato-qualifying defence expenditure is a broader metric, encompassing state costs such as military pensions. Based on this wider calculation, the alliance estimated UK spending at £70bn in 2025, which represents 2.4% of the nation’s GDP for that year. In February 2025, Sir Keir pledged to increase this figure to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, and later announced that security and intelligence agency activities would be included in this definition by 2027, theoretically pushing spending to 2.6% of GDP.
The Prime Minister has also expressed a clear ambition to reach 3% of GDP within the current parliament. Furthermore, at a Nato summit in The Hague in June 2025, the UK joined other members in a commitment to reach a 5% of GDP threshold for defence and security by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to core Nato-qualifying defence. The remaining 1.5% may cover areas such as infrastructure protection, cyber resilience, and industrial base strengthening. Sir Keir claims the measures within the current DIP place the UK on a trajectory to reach 4.2% under that broader definition.
Former Defence Secretary John Healey, who resigned on 11 June, previously criticized the plans he reviewed, arguing they only reached 2.68% by 2030 and were insufficient given current geopolitical threats. He advocated for a 3% commitment by 2030. The current DIP projections indicate defence spending will reach 2.7% of GDP by 2027-28 and remain at that level through 2030, which represents a marginal increase of about 0.02% of GDP—approximately £600m in current terms—since Healey’s departure.
Following the publication of the DIP, Healey noted on social media that a specific target date is essential for hitting the 3% goal and a clear roadmap is required to reach the 3.5% Nato requirement by 2035. While the Prime Minister maintains the government is on the correct trajectory to meet these goals, independent analysts find it difficult to reconcile a 2.7% projection by 2030 with the long-term target of 3.5% by 2035 without significant future budget adjustments.
The government frequently highlights £270bn in defence spending over the current parliament as the largest sustained increase since the 1980s, based on total cash figures from the 2025 Spending Review. Sir Keir stated the DIP adds an extra £15bn to this total over four years, which reports suggest is £1.5bn higher than the previous iteration of the plan. Additionally, there have been long-standing reports of a potential £28bn budget shortfall, a figure originally reported by The Times citing Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, though the Ministry of Defence has never officially confirmed this estimate or its source.
