The Guardian’s European environment correspondent, Ajit Niranjan, recently engaged with readers to answer their questions about the severe heatwave currently scorching its way across Europe. His insights follow extensive reporting on the phenomenon, which has seen countries like Germany, France, Czechia, Poland, and Hungary experience their hottest days ever, while the UK recorded its hottest June day. Budapest, for instance, is anticipated to reach 40C, with other parts of eastern Europe under red warnings for extreme heat.
Many have noted that this year’s heatwave feels distinctly different from previous occurrences, despite heatwaves becoming a recurring feature. Niranjan agrees, attributing this perception to a combination of increased frequency, intensity, and public awareness. He highlighted the widespread understanding of climate change science and its more immediate link to heatwaves compared to floods or hurricanes, enabling people to connect the dots more readily. Personally, he noted experiencing back-to-back days of 39C heat this past weekend, a first for him, reinforcing the difficulty of dismissing the current discomfort as an anomaly given recent memory of other intensely hot years.
Regarding preparedness for future heatwaves, particularly as a second wave was anticipated to hit France and other regions, Niranjan offered a nuanced perspective. He explained that scientists find earlier heatwaves more dangerous because people haven’t yet adapted their behaviors. Individuals who purchased handheld fans, installed external shutters, or sought cooling centers last week will be better prepared for the next event. For authorities, while there’s hope they have learned, short-term actions are more likely to focus on enhancing healthcare systems and adjusting work and school hours, rather than directly reducing the heat itself. This situation has led to growing frustration, exemplified by 26 leading French scientists publishing an open letter in Le Figaro. They countered Emanuel Macron’s claims that France couldn’t have adapted, asserting that despite warnings for over 30 years, the country remains unprepared for today’s climate, let alone tomorrow’s, with public policies still relying on past records instead of anticipating future ones.
Looking ahead, while a second heatwave might affect parts of western Europe later this week, it is expected to be shorter and cover a smaller area. Some places, like Seville, are forecast to endure 41C highs for seven consecutive days without a break. Generally, Europe’s most intense heatwaves occur in July and August, making the full extent of this summer’s heat still uncertain.
Major urban centers like London, grappling with the urban heat island effect, can draw lessons from other European cities. Paris, for example, has made significant strides by planting numerous trees and addressing car culture. These measures reduce both the heat generated by the city (fewer fossil fuel-burning machines) and the amount of heat trapped (less concrete absorbing it). However, Paris started from a challenging position, and cities like Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Vienna still offer benchmarks for further improvements. Mayors have powerful tools to mitigate urban heat, such as converting concrete and tarmac into green spaces rich in plant life. Reducing car dependency is a key strategy, as it frees up land for green initiatives, as is building dense housing and rewilding brownfield sites. Rivers, often channeled underground in cities, also represent an overlooked solution.
The public’s response to soaring temperatures often involves increasing air conditioning use and avoiding discussions about climate change. This raises concerns about the heightened risk of blackouts, a reason experts are wary of widespread AC adoption in homes, especially in regions where simple renovations for increased shading could drastically lower indoor temperatures. Nevertheless, there is considerable support for the strategic use of air conditioning in protecting vulnerable groups within hospitals, care homes, schools, and public transport. The European branch of the World Health Organization advocates for a nuanced approach, stating that while air conditioning is “not a sustainable societal solution,” it “remains crucial” for those at increased risk from high temperatures.
When it comes to personal adaptation, the idea that people who grew up with heat deal with it better is not scientifically confirmed. However, individuals who have moved from hot to colder countries often report finding European heat more challenging due to a lack of appropriate infrastructure. For instance, a friend found 46C heat in Australia earlier this year less severe than 39C heat in Berlin this past weekend, attributing the difference to infrastructure.
The language used in reporting, particularly the term “records,” has been questioned for potentially missing the urgency of the climate crisis. While technically correct, Niranjan acknowledged that “records” can imply they are meant to be broken. He prefers to use “record-breaking heat” for accuracy, as it refers to measurements since records began, rather than over a longer historical period. He suggests that the urgency can be more effectively conveyed by detailing the damage hot weather inflicts on human bodies and by stating the death toll, which typically amounts to tens of thousands across Europe each summer—a figure ten times higher than deaths caused by murderers.
Concerns have also been raised about far-right political figures potentially exploiting climate change issues to fuel anti-immigration sentiment. So far, Niranjan observes little evidence of this, with far-right parties generally discussing migrants and climate as separate issues. A recent exception was a Swiss referendum linking migration’s impact on natural resources, though this was more about environmental degradation than climate breakdown. Data suggests migrants’ pollution levels are similar to native-born populations, making it difficult to blame foreigners for rising temperatures. A more probable scenario is that as temperatures in North Africa and the Middle East become intolerable, increased migration to Europe will force far-right parties to confront the paradox of wanting to stop migration while supporting the fossil fuel pollution that exacerbates it. This paradox is reflected in polling data: despite less than 10% of the public denying climate science, far-right parties that do so consistently poll above 20%. While some link this to fossil fuel lobbies, a more convincing theory suggests these parties, having largely ‘won’ the migration debate, are seeking new battlegrounds to distinguish themselves from mainstream parties.
Regarding media accountability, many journalists, including those at The Guardian and outlets like Bloomberg, Carbon Brief, and Climate Home News, actively hold politicians accountable on climate issues. Niranjan believes the public would be better informed if politicians were pressed more on climate costs, particularly in primetime TV and radio. He points to structural explanations, such as political experts typically interviewing politicians rather than subject specialists, but emphasizes that higher standards of scrutiny for politicians’ claims could significantly improve coverage.
Addressing the question of a realistic way out of the current climate crisis, Niranjan stated that stabilizing temperatures at a still-not-safe level requires the world to cease burning fossil fuels, protect and restore nature, and actively remove carbon from the atmosphere. Many of these actions can be achieved with existing, relatively cheap technologies and behavioral changes, such as solar panels, electric cars, batteries, and heat pumps. However, sectors like aviation and many factories still present significant challenges. While a rapid shift is unlikely in the current political climate, the falling prices of clean alternatives mean that active political will would be needed to halt their adoption, suggesting a slowdown rather than a complete derailment of the transition.
Despite the widespread surprise expressed by some people and politicians about the current heat, Niranjan highlighted meaningful progress. Europe’s horrific 2003 heatwave resulted in 70,000 heat-related deaths; scientists estimate that a heatwave of similar strength today would see a 75% smaller death toll. Experts attribute this reduction to a combination of early warning systems, heat action plans, and people adapting their behavior. Beyond the influence of the fossil fuel industry, the political landscape shows that while active climate change denial is in single-digit percentages across western Europe, far-right parties engaging in such denial poll well above 20%. Dominant centre-right parties in these countries often campaign to weaken existing climate ambitions, though they generally refrain from abandoning net-zero emissions targets outside the UK.
The notion that climate solutions necessitate greater corporate control or autocratic governance than the fossil fuel status quo is unfounded. Niranjan emphasized that solutions are emerging from a broad spectrum of actors: autocracies are investing in wind turbines and solar panels in developing nations, publicly traded companies in democracies are receiving state support for carbon capture in industrial plants, cities are transforming car parking into bike lanes, and individuals are adopting plant-based diets. All these diverse actions are crucial components of scientific roadmaps aimed at decarbonizing the economy by mid-century.
Regarding the impact of El Niño, Niranjan clarified that it doesn’t necessarily mean the current heatwave would have been more extreme if fully developed. While El Niño, a natural warming pattern in the Pacific, contributes to hotter global average temperatures, its effects on European summer are harder to predict. Analysis from Copernicus indicates that temperatures in June and July during El Niño years are not significantly different from their monthly averages over the last half-century, though August and September tend to be considerably hotter across much of Europe. Scientists are currently more concerned about the timing of El Niño, as it coincides with high fuel and fertilizer prices, reduced foreign aid budgets, and many poor countries facing or at high risk of debt distress.
Among countries not historically accustomed to extreme heat, Denmark stands out for its mitigation efforts. A senior citizens association there has a decades-old system where 1,700 volunteers regularly call older people for welfare checks. While not originally for heat, this system effectively addresses one of the biggest health impacts of hot weather, as older individuals are disproportionately affected by heat-related deaths. Checking in on those who live alone is perhaps the most crucial advice during a heatwave. In Berlin, which hit 39C this past weekend, the response was mixed: police deployed riot control water cannons to cool people down as the city broke temperature records, yet groups were observed drinking alcohol on “beer cycle tours” in the intense heat. While aspects of climate breakdown can feel overwhelming, many areas remain within our collective and individual agency.
