A Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted between July 8 and July 13 indicates that Democrats hold a narrow lead over Republicans as the midterm elections approach. Two years after President Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, Democrats are currently polling at 48% compared to 45% for Republicans.
This current advantage for Democrats is significantly amplified among those voters who are classified as "absolutely certain to vote." Within this highly motivated group, 53% support Democrats, while 45% favor Republicans. Data suggests that Democratic supporters are currently 10% more likely to vote this year than Republicans, a gap that surpasses the two-point lead Democrats held in 2018. During that 2018 midterm cycle, Democrats maintained a 10-point lead and gained 40 U.S. House seats, though Republicans retained control of the Senate.
President Trump continues to face low approval ratings, which currently sit at 37% according to the Washington Post-Ipsos survey. A separate Economist/YouGov poll conducted from July 10 to July 13 mirrored these findings, also placing his job approval at 37%. These figures come as the administration navigates ongoing challenges related to the economy and the war in Iran.
The political landscape remains precarious for the Republican party, which currently holds a 53-47 seat majority in the Senate. In the House of Representatives, Speaker Mike Johnson operates with a razor-thin two-vote margin, leaving little room for defections as the party attempts to advance the President's legislative agenda. Furthermore, the impact of partisan gerrymandering has introduced additional uncertainty regarding the ability of Democrats to reclaim control of either chamber of Congress.
Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr., Zachary Schermele
