At least 191 million residents across Europe are projected to face temperatures reaching 35C or higher this Sunday. According to estimates provided by AFP, the sweltering heat is expected to be most extreme in Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland.
An analysis conducted using data from the German Meteorological Service and 2025 population projections provided by the Joint Research Centre—collated by the Austrian non-governmental organization Klimadashboard—indicates that approximately 381 million people throughout Europe, excluding Turkey, will experience temperatures exceeding 30C.
Nearly the entirety of the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland are forecast to see mercury levels surpass 35C on Sunday. Similar conditions are expected for 42 million people across various parts of Germany, with the Berlin area anticipated to be particularly affected. Other regions bracing for intense heat include Italy, Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia, Austria, and parts of western Ukraine.
In mainland France, approximately 11 million people are expected to be impacted by the high temperatures, even as officials prepare to lift red alerts on Sunday evening. To determine these figures, AFP utilized a methodology modeled after the Klimadashboard approach, cross-referencing population density statistics with the 0300 GMT weather forecast model from the German Meteorological Service (DWD).
Under this calculation method, residents are included in the affected tally if the model predicts temperatures will hit or exceed the 30C or 35C thresholds at any point in their location. David Jablonski of the NGO Klimadashboard noted that because the model operates within a range of approximately 6.5 kilometers, or four miles, it does not fully account for urban heat islands. Consequently, the organization’s European Heat Tracker website suggests that the current analysis likely provides a conservative estimate and underestimates the number of individuals living in densely populated urban zones who are facing these extreme conditions.
