The highly anticipated Arizona gubernatorial race is seeing a significant shift in dynamics as Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, prepares for the July 21 primary. Despite Trump's strong backing and Biggs' commanding lead in the GOP primary, forecasters have recently shifted their prediction for the general election from a toss-up to "leans Democratic." This change signals a challenging path for Biggs as he seeks to unseat Democratic incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Rep. Biggs, 67, a five-term congressman and former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, currently holds a dominant 50-point lead over his rivals in the Republican primary. His candidacy has the full support of Donald Trump, who publicly expressed his mixed feelings about Biggs leaving Congress but affirmed, "I hate to lose him, but he'll be a great governor." Trump's endorsement comes after he secured Arizona in the 2024 presidential race by approximately six percentage points, marking the widest margin among the seven swing states.
The reclassification of the race to "leans Democratic" this month is attributed to several factors, including voters' pessimistic outlook on the economy, a decline in Trump's popularity, and Biggs' own controversial views. Opponents specifically cite Biggs' role as a major player in the 2020 "fake elector scheme." Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, noted that Arizona Republicans have historically rejected election deniers in statewide gubernatorial elections. She added, "The Republican Party has had trouble, I think, in nominating candidates that are broadly acceptable to more moderate voters in Arizona."
In anticipation of winning Tuesday's GOP primary, Biggs has already initiated a political makeover aimed at presenting a more moderate image to independent voters, emphasizing his occasional bipartisan efforts on Capitol Hill. His campaign has maintained disciplined messaging, largely focusing on his 14-year career in the state legislature and his policy expertise. He also attempted to showcase a "softer side" during an April rally with Trump, becoming emotional while recounting his 45-year marriage and his belief in Arizona's opportunities, stating, "It’s time we bring that optimism back to the state," and "We need to think big."
Biggs has been critical of Governor Hobbs' tenure, particularly her record number of 541 vetoes against the Republican-controlled legislature. He argues that Arizona is in decline due to rising costs of living and low educational performance. "She doesn't get out and speak much. She kind of stays hidden," Biggs claimed, adding, "She's already said she won't debate me, so I think the results (of her administration) speak volumes." He also noted that Hobbs has not committed to a debate this year, similar to her refusal to debate Kari Lake in the 2022 campaign, which drew scrutiny from Republicans.
Governor Hobbs, 56, who narrowly won her 2022 election against Kari Lake by less than one percentage point, began her re-election bid as one of the most endangered Democratic governors this cycle. However, she remains confident, stating, "Honestly, I'm not paying much attention to what the pundits in Washington are saying," and acknowledging, "I know this race is going to be close no matter what because Arizona is a swing state." Hobbs emphasized her commitment to competing for every vote, spotlighting a record she says "stiff arms partisan politics" in efforts to lower costs, secure the border, and bring good-paying jobs to the southwestern state.
Hobbs has largely avoided public confrontations with the Trump administration over issues like National Guard deployment or the 2020 election, a contrast to some Democratic colleagues like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker who have gained notoriety for such clashes. She stated she is "against abolishing ICE," acknowledging their role in enforcing U.S. immigration laws, but stressed, "But they need to do their job without violating our civil rights and creating fear and chaos in our neighborhoods." Hobbs also communicated to the White House her focus on "going after drug dealers, human traffickers and gang activity coming across the border," aligning with Trump's 2024 campaign promise. She was among 24 Democratic governors who signed a joint statement on July 16, criticizing Trump's national address on U.S. elections as an attempt to "undermine free and fair elections" this fall.
Hobbs has significantly outraised Biggs, spending more than $6 million on advertising, much of it this summer, to remind voters of her record and middle-class upbringing. This strategy mirrors successful campaigns by current Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, and former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who often focus on issues and personal stories rather than explicit party affiliation. Lorna Romero Ferguson, a Republican consultant, observed, "They rarely say that they're a Democrat in these ads," and "They just focus more on the issues and telling their personal story. You're seeing her follow that same model, and she did that four years ago, and she was successful with it."
While Democrats aim to portray Biggs as an "ideological twin" of Kari Lake, conservatives hope key differences will give Biggs an advantage. Lake, a former Phoenix news anchor, was a staunch anti-McCain conservative who heavily promoted unsubstantiated claims that Trump won the 2020 contest and filed multiple lawsuits based on false statements about the 2022 governor's race. Her campaign focused heavily on MAGA-aligned grievances over issues like gender-affirming care for transgender Americans and COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns. Biggs, though one of the most outspoken Republicans challenging the 2020 results, has attempted to pivot away from his past efforts to obstruct former President Joe Biden's win in Arizona by about 10,500 votes.
Despite Biggs' attempts to shift focus, his prior statements questioning the 2020 election outcome and attending meetings to overturn the results are likely to continue to affect his candidacy, especially as Trump remains fixated on that loss, as demonstrated in a July 16 primetime address. When asked three times about the 2020 election outcome, Biggs stated he wouldn’t be pitted against Trump, saying, "I'm not going to be critical against Republicans, and we have a lot of people with a lot of diverse viewpoints," and "The reality is we're going to win this state by looking forward and having a vision for the state." Romero Ferguson believes the issue carries less weight now, stating, "I don't think it carries as much weight now as it did four years ago," and "We're six years past it. I think voters are honestly sick of hearing about it."
Biggs is also adopting a Democratic playbook tactic by addressing cost-of-living concerns, arguing Hobbs has made life "tougher and more expensive" for voters. An April report by the conservative-leaning Common Sense Institute Arizona ranked the state at the bottom nationwide for affordability, primarily due to rising housing costs. Additionally, a February WalletHub study placed Arizona in the lower half of states with a well-educated population, providing further ammunition for Biggs' criticisms.
Biggs faces fellow Rep. David Schweikert, along with political newcomers Ken Miceli of Scottsdale, who owns Advanced Painting & Contracting, and Scott Neely of Mesa, who sells concrete supplies and believes the World Health Organization attempted to take power from individual nations via the COVID-19 pandemic. This primary has largely avoided sharp conflict, allowing Biggs to court independent voters and highlight instances of collaboration with congressional Democrats. He stated, "I may be conservative, but I've also shown that even when you're conservative, if you look to collaborate, you can find points and ways to collaborate with even people who fundamentally disagree with you on other things."
However, Biggs is a first-time statewide candidate, unlike Hobbs who has won statewide twice before – as Secretary of State in 2018 and Governor in 2022. He is also running against an incumbent in a national environment where Democrats are over-performing in conservative areas this year. A May survey by Noble Predictive Insights showed Biggs losing to Hobbs by four percentage points in a hypothetical general election, with Trump holding a net negative 17-point approval rating compared to Hobbs' net positive 5-point approval. The Democratic Governor's Association has identified this gubernatorial seat as a top priority to defend. Trump won Biggs' 5th congressional district, which covers suburbs southeast of Phoenix, by roughly 20 percentage points in 2024, more than three times the rest of the state that year.
The race to November will heavily involve courting undecided independents and convincible Republicans, groups Hobbs successfully won over in 2022. Hobbs has already garnered support from notable Republicans, including Cindy McCain, the wife of the late Sen. John McCain. However, right-leaning independent voters like Ernie Barten, 75, of Phoenix, plan to support primary candidate Neely, citing a "commonsense mentality" among Republicans and criticizing Democrats' "progressive lurch." Barten felt Hobbs played too much to her Democratic base and wasn't strong enough on border issues or supporting immigration agents. Conversely, Blake Sacha, 61, an unregistered voter who leads an organization advocating for open primaries and ranked-choice voting, sees Hobbs as representing stability. Sacha, who voted for Democrats for the first time in 2022 and rejected Lake, acknowledged Biggs' calmer demeanor but warned, "I think he's probably even more dangerous because he can appear sane," adding, "He does a good job of appearing polished and smooth."
"I don't think she's trying to be a resistance hero in the way that you see these other candidates that likely have their eye on 2028," she said.
But for other Arizonans like Blake Sacha, who is not registered with either major party, the governor's original pitch now represents a stability that is needed to tame the country's turbulent political climate.
