President Donald Trump’s political influence will be tested once more this Saturday during the Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana. The race remains difficult to predict due to anticipated low voter turnout, a factor that could complicate Trump’s ability to shape the contest’s direction in the state.
Trump previously played a role in the ousting of incumbent GOP Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict the former president during his second impeachment trial following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. Cassidy finished in third place in the May 16 primary with 25% of the vote, missing the cut for the runoff.
In that primary, Trump-backed Representative Julia Letlow secured first place with 45% of the vote, while state Treasurer John Fleming followed with 28%. Because neither candidate achieved a majority, they are now heading into a runoff. Letlow enters Saturday’s vote with a projected advantage, largely attributed to Trump’s vocal backing.
During a tele-rally held Thursday evening, Trump encouraged supporters to vote for Letlow, labeling her a “fearless champion” for Louisiana. Letlow has vowed to champion Trump’s “America First” agenda, characterizing the runoff as a decision between “a real conservative fighter or another career politician.”
However, some Republican strategists in Louisiana suggest that Fleming could potentially secure a win if turnout is exceptionally low and only the most dedicated conservatives participate. Lionel Rainey III, a GOP strategist unaffiliated with the campaigns, stated that while Letlow is expected to win, the race may be closer than anticipated and a win for Fleming is possible, though perhaps not probable.
Fleming argues that he can attract Trump’s core supporters as voters re-evaluate their options. He noted that the primary dynamic was largely defined by a desire to remove Cassidy from office, but that the focus has now shifted to the individual merits of the remaining candidates. A former congressman and founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, Fleming served in the first Trump administration as a deputy chief of staff.
Positioning himself as the “MAGA conservative,” Fleming has criticized Letlow for her prior stances on foreign aid and diversity, equity and inclusion policies. Letlow has stated she reversed her position on DEI issues after re-evaluating them. Strategist James Hartman noted that Trump’s early endorsement of Letlow has essentially shielded her from accusations of being liberal, as supporters generally view Trump as a conservative benchmark.
Fleming mentioned that he spoke with Trump via phone after the endorsement and received a positive reception. During the recent tele-rally, Trump focused his praise on Letlow, emphasizing her commitment to the “SAVE America Act” to overhaul election laws. Both candidates have expressed varying degrees of openness to eliminating the filibuster to move the bill forward, though Fleming expressed concerns regarding potential future Democratic use of a filibuster-free chamber.
Letlow has received significant support from allied super PACs and prominent Louisiana Republicans, including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Representative Clay Higgins. Higgins endorsed Letlow after Fleming shared an AI-generated video of her that was widely criticized; Fleming has since deleted the post and stated he has not created AI videos, though he defends the use of parody ads.
Ultimately, analysts suggest that Trump’s endorsement remains the primary catalyst for Letlow’s campaign, potentially serving as the deciding factor in her path to victory this Saturday as his loyal base is expected to align with his choice.
