Turkey’s persecuted pro-Kurdish party has emerged as a crucial kingmaker in the country’s upcoming presidential election, positioning itself to play a decisive role that could end the two-decade rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In a major setback for the Turkish leader and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) announced last month that it would not put forward its own presidential candidate. Analysts point out that this strategic decision effectively clears the way for HDP supporters to throw their weight behind Erdogan’s primary challenger.
In a public statement released on March 23, the HDP emphasized the historical significance of the upcoming vote. "We are facing a turning point that will shape the future of Turkey and (its) society," the party declared. "To fulfill our historical responsibility against the one-man rule, we will not field a presidential candidate in (the) May 14 elections."
The situation presents a striking twist of irony for Erdogan, who has spent much of the past ten years leading a severe crackdown on the HDP after the party began eroding his core voter base. The party's former leader, Selahattin Demirtas, has been imprisoned for nearly seven years, and the HDP itself faces a potential court-ordered shutdown over allegations of colluding with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates. Despite these heavy pressures, the party’s political leverage remains strong enough to dictate the trajectory of the nation's leadership.
The HDP's decision to abstain from running a candidate came just three days after Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Erdogan’s main rival, held a meeting with the HDP's co-chairs. Following the meeting, Turkish media reported Kilicdaroglu as saying that the resolution to the country's deep-seated issues, "including the Kurdish problem," must be found in parliament. Kilicdaroglu, who leads the six-party Nation Alliance opposition coalition, represents the most formidable electoral challenge Erdogan has faced in years. Although the HDP has not yet formally endorsed him, political analysts agree that the party holds the keys to the election.
Hisyar Ozsoy, the deputy co-chair of the HDP and a member of parliament representing the predominantly Kurdish province of Diyarbakir, described the party's move as a highly calculated strategy. "It was a carefully crafted political discourse," Ozsoy said. "We are not going to have our own candidate, and we will leave it to the international community to interpret it the way they wish."
Experts suggest that the government's sustained campaign against the HDP stems from the direct political threat the party poses to Erdogan, alongside its status as a primary representative of Turkey's Kurdish minority. Kurds make up between 15% and 20% of the Turkish population, according to data from Minority Rights Group International. The relationship between the Kurdish population and Erdogan has been historically complex. In his earlier years in power, Erdogan actively courted Kurdish voters by expanding their cultural rights and lifting long-standing restrictions on the use of the Kurdish language. He even engaged in a brief, cordial peace process with the PKK, working directly with the HDP. However, those relations eventually collapsed, and the HDP became the target of a sweeping state crackdown aimed at dismantling the PKK and its associated groups.
The HDP currently operates under severe constraints due to its ongoing legal battle in Turkey’s Constitutional Court. The state seeks to ban the party over its alleged ties to the PKK, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union. Operating under the constant threat of a sudden ban, the HDP’s parliamentary candidates have opted to run under the banner of the Green Left Party. Analysts note that keeping a deliberate distance between the HDP and the main opposition coalition may actually protect Kilicdaroglu's campaign.
Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul and author of "Return to Point Zero," a book examining the Turkish-Kurdish question, warned that an overt alliance could backfire. If the opposition is seen as openly partnering with the HDP, Erdogan's AK Party is highly likely to use its extensive influence over the domestic media to paint the opposition as pro-PKK. Somer noted that the HDP is a kingmaker because it typically secures about half of the Kurdish vote. The remaining, more conservative Kurdish voters have traditionally favored Erdogan’s AK Party. Recently, the Free Cause Party (HUDA-PAR), a minor Kurdish-Islamist party that has never held seats in parliament, announced its backing of Erdogan.
The HDP’s capacity to disrupt Erdogan’s hold on power was first demonstrated in the June 2015 general election, the first in which the party participated. By winning 13% of the seats, the HDP deprived the ruling AK Party of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002. In response, Erdogan called a snap election five months later, which successfully restored the AK Party’s majority while dragging the HDP’s support down to 10.7%.
Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, noted that while the Turkish government has persistently sought to link the HDP to the PKK, it has failed to prove a genuine connection. She observed that many Kurdish voters have recently drifted away from Erdogan's support base. Aydintasbas added that a transition of power away from Erdogan could offer vital political breathing room for Turkey's Kurds and Kurdish-dominated parties. "For HDP, this is more than just an ideological choice," she said. "It’s a matter of survival."
Ozsoy reinforced this sentiment, emphasizing that his party is fully aware of what is at stake for Kurds and other minority groups across the country. "We are aware of our responsibility here. We are aware of our role. We know we are in a kingmaker position," the HDP lawmaker stated, adding that the party is proceeding cautiously to avoid a highly polarized and hostile political climate.
