When American and Israeli warplanes conducted strikes against Iran on February 28, Israeli officials initially anticipated the dawn of a golden age in their alliance. However, four months later, the nation is bracing for a future where it appears more isolated than ever. Last week, the vice president of the United States set a challenging tone, informing Israel that it possesses almost no friends left globally and should carefully consider its next moves before alienating its final remaining ally. According to seven people, including U.S. and Israeli officials, the issue transcends Vice President JD Vance; he is simply the face of a new normal where Israel’s status as an American ally no longer overrides other national priorities. An Israeli political adviser noted that the government was naive to expect that President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy would include a permanent exemption for Israel.
The current chill in diplomatic relations is becoming increasingly evident. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington five times in 2025, but after a single trip this past February, there are no further dates on the calendar for additional White House visits. Phone communications between the two administrations have also declined significantly. While the White House publicly asserts that relations remain strong—citing the success of the 38-day Operation Epic Fury which decimated Iran’s military capabilities—the reality behind closed doors is more strained. A person familiar with these interactions noted that they have not reached the worst possible point, suggesting more friction is likely to follow.
Vance has issued stark warnings, stating that Donald J. Trump is the only world leader currently sympathetic to Israel. He cautioned that if he were in the Israeli cabinet, he would avoid attacking his only remaining powerful ally. Vance has long argued that U.S. and Israeli interests do not always align, specifically regarding the desire to avoid direct war with Iran. This skepticism is now influencing policy; the recent memorandum of understanding with Iran aims to lower oil prices and reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, yet it fails to address Israel’s specific anxieties regarding ballistic missiles. Trump himself has displayed a volatile tone, reportedly labeling Netanyahu “f—ing crazy” earlier this month due to frustration over Israeli actions in Lebanon.
Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes the Israeli government is underestimating the severity of this shift. While a framework was signed last Friday intended to help end the conflict in Lebanon, it does not bind Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, leaving its effectiveness in doubt. Netanyahu’s office is currently attempting to deflect blame toward Vance, though allies of the vice president maintain that the White House is aligned, especially following Trump’s own aggressive rhetoric. Despite the tension, Israeli officials attempt to maintain a balanced view, citing successes such as ending the war in Gaza and the recovery of 20 living hostages as evidence that the relationship still holds value.
The public discourse has become increasingly heated, with Israeli Channel 14 host Yinon Magal referring to Vance in derogatory terms. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett, one of Netanyahu’s main political challengers, expressed concerns regarding a rising tide of isolationism in America reminiscent of the pre-WWII era. With Netanyahu’s political future at stake in the October elections and the 2028 U.S. political landscape looming, both nations expect divisions to deepen. Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett noted that Vance is strategically placing “bread crumbs” for his own political future, aiming to articulate a path that resonates with both international and domestic base audiences as the regional reality shifts.
