The recent fatal attack during a Berlin Christopher Street Day event has reignited intense debate regarding the absence of an official EU-wide register for monitoring individuals linked to terrorism. Currently, there is no centralized estimate or official database of the number of such individuals under surveillance across the European bloc.
Europol officials confirmed to news outlets that intelligence and security operations remain strictly under national jurisdiction, with each individual member state applying its own unique legal definitions, surveillance thresholds, and monitoring infrastructure.
This systemic fragmentation has drawn significant scrutiny following the identification of the Berlin suspect as 21-year-old Abdul Ballout, a German citizen of Lebanese heritage. Ballout, who was shot dead by police after the attack that claimed the life of one woman and left 29 others injured, had been known to German authorities for several years. His record included previous violent offenses, documented Islamist radicalization, and repeated attempts to join the Islamic State in Syria.
In May 2026, a Berlin juvenile court sentenced him to 22 months in youth custody for preparing a serious act of violence endangering the state, attempting to join the Islamic State, and disseminating the group's propaganda online. However, he was released after the court determined there were no longer sufficient grounds for pretrial detention, even as prosecutors appealed for a harsher sentence.
Prior to the attack, Ballout had been ordered to undergo a deradicalization program. The organization overseeing the program concluded that he had attempted to mislead evaluators into believing he had abandoned his extremist views. Furthermore, authorities had searched his home earlier in July 2026 regarding suspected weapons offenses, though the investigation was dropped after officers discovered only a toy gun. The incident is currently being treated by authorities as an act of Islamist terrorism.
Germany is among the few European countries that publishes detailed figures on Islamist extremism, though officials distinguish between the wider extremist scene and those considered at higher risk of carrying out violence. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) estimates that there are approximately 28,000 people within the Islamist extremist scene. However, only a small proportion are classified as potential violent actors.
Dr. Raphael Bossong from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) noted that approximately 450 to 470 individuals are considered potentially violent. These individuals fall under the German security category 'Gefährder,' a term used for people whom authorities believe could potentially commit a serious politically motivated crime.
According to figures cited by Bossong from the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), the number of Islamist 'Gefährder' currently stands at around 446, though this figure fluctuates as investigations develop and individuals are added or removed from monitoring lists. These numbers also vary among Germany's federal states; in Berlin, authorities have previously identified around 100 people classified as Islamist 'Gefährder,' although state-level figures are not always publicly available.
Other European countries maintain their own national monitoring systems, though the figures are not directly comparable. Belgium maintains a national watchlist of individuals considered a priority for monitoring under its Terrorism, Extremism and Radicalisation Strategy (T.E.R.), which combines intelligence gathering with prevention and rehabilitation.
According to the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis, the country's Common Database on Terrorism, Extremism and Radicalisation contained 529 entities in July 2026. These include 446 linked to Islamist extremism, 47 to right-wing extremism, 12 to left-wing extremism, six to nihilist extremism, and 10 to anti-establishment extremism.
An OCAD spokesperson clarified that being included in the database does not automatically mean that someone has been convicted or is in prison. For every person included, an individual risk assessment is carried out to determine the required follow-up, which may consist of security measures, guidance, or preventive support through local partners. OCAD noted that Belgium's approach is based on the principle that terrorism and extremism are not only a security challenge but also have a societal component.
France operates one of Europe's most transparent systems through the FSPRT watchlist, which contains several thousand individuals considered at risk of violent radicalization linked to terrorism. French authorities stress that being included on the list does not necessarily mean someone has committed a crime or belongs to a terrorist organization.
Outside the EU, the UK has stated that MI5 manages around 43,000 "subjects of interest" across all terrorism investigations, including Islamist and far-right extremism.
The Netherlands also publishes threat assessments without disclosing the number of individuals under monitoring. Security experts caution that these figures cannot be combined because they measure different categories, ranging from broader extremist milieus to active intelligence investigations and individuals considered potential attackers.
The absence of a European-wide statistic has prompted questions over whether the lack of a common database affects cross-border monitoring of suspected extremists. Europol stressed, however, that the absence of a central figure does not mean that information-sharing mechanisms are missing. The agency noted that its role is not to maintain a central register of individuals under investigation, but to support member states in cases where international cooperation is required.
Europol analyzes information, helps identify links between investigations, and facilitates cooperation between national authorities.
The agency pointed to the EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (EU TE-SAT) as the main publicly available source for tracking terrorist threats across the bloc. Ultimately, the decentralized system means that European security services rely on national intelligence databases combined with information-sharing mechanisms, rather than a single EU-wide watchlist of individuals considered potential terrorist threats.
