In an effort to bolster the bloc’s energy security and reduce its vulnerability to global supply shocks, the European Commission is preparing to introduce an EU-wide electrification target for 2040. This policy initiative, intended to decrease dependence on imported oil and gas, comes as a direct response to the risks highlighted by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
According to a draft of the Electrification Action Plan, which is scheduled for official release on 17 July, Brussels intends to propose a binding target later this year. This goal will form a key component of a broader energy package designed for the post-2030 period. While the specific numerical target has yet to be finalized and remains blank in the current draft, the initiative is framed as a matter of European sovereignty, industrial competitiveness, and energy security.
The commission’s internal analysis emphasizes that recent geopolitical instability has exposed the dangers of relying on external fossil fuel suppliers. The draft notes that the EU spent an additional €50bn on fossil-fuel imports during the 111-day crisis in the Middle East. By accelerating the shift toward electricity in sectors like transport, buildings, and industry, the commission estimates that the bloc could replace roughly two-thirds of its current gas demand and cut oil consumption by half by 2040. Such a transition is projected to lower the EU’s total fossil fuel import bill by approximately €200bn over that timeframe.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable power sources, electricity currently accounts for only 23 percent of final energy consumption in the EU, a figure that has shown little growth over the last decade. In contrast, other major global economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea, have already surpassed the 30 percent electrification threshold. Furthermore, when viewed over a longer historical lens, the EU’s progress appears stagnant, with overall electrification rates remaining largely unchanged since the early 1990s. The commission has identified the burden of high power prices as a primary obstacle hindering faster progress in this transition. Instead, Brussels wants to speed up electrification in transport, buildings and industry, describing it as a matter of “sovereignty”, competitiveness and energy security.
