For over a decade, the European Union has invested billions of euros in an attempt to foster closer ties with authoritarian North African regimes. These efforts were largely aimed at curbing migration and establishing robust counter-terrorism and security partnerships. However, recent developments in Libya and Morocco suggest that the EU is being eclipsed by a more assertive American diplomatic approach under the Trump administration.
Libya has remained fractured since the stalemate in its civil war, which resulted in rival administrations operating in Tripoli and Benghazi. The latter is supported by the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar. Recently, both factions reached a consensus on a unified budget—the first since 2014—and established a roadmap for elections set for next February. On June 26, the ‘Libya National Initiative’ convened in Brussels to outline a path toward a new executive authority, emphasizing that regional stability is inextricably linked to a unified Libya.
Despite this, the primary driving force behind this newfound momentum is the United States, particularly through Massad Boulos, an envoy for Donald Trump. The Trump administration is seeking unfettered access to Libyan oil and exploring the establishment of a permanent US military presence. The proposed settlement suggests installing Haftar’s son, Saddam, as the head of a new presidential council, while retaining Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba until elections take place.
The US effort to sideline the United Nations in these negotiations was evident in an April Security Council resolution, which moved to centralize crude oil export payments through the National Oil Corporation. Furthermore, the US Department of Defense recently conducted ‘Flintlock 26’ maneuvers in Sirte, signaling a possible expansion of the Africa Command (AFRICOM) into Libya following the US departure from Niger in 2024.
The US strategy extends beyond Libya, with the breakaway republic of Somaliland offering military and naval base access in exchange for diplomatic recognition. Moreover, Washington is deepening its strategic alignment with Morocco. The US Senate Armed Services Committee recently introduced a move to make Morocco a key military partner via a 10-year roadmap, solidifying a bilateral defense agreement from April. With the US increasing weapons sales after recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara—a position since adopted by France, Spain, and the EU—the European bloc finds itself struggling to maintain its influence as a primary partner in the region.
